MBE Steps up to the Plate

With the sell-off from the past couple of months fresh in the memories of most, we move into more exciting times for holders. As I have previously described I am hoping a number of catalysts help give momentum to the share price over th year. One of these catalysts is the half year results that are just around the corner (this week or next).

When the market was updated about expected results last year the share price found its way to 44c. MBE are known for underpromising and over delivering. Therefore, I'm expecting some upside to the announced revenue of 27m, EBITDA of 3.5m, and underlying EBITDA of 7.5m. However, we all know the market is forward thinking. The market already knows what's coming and has priced it accordingly. So why the huge retrace?

I think the retrace is the result of a number of things including buying by an institution or two. They have cleverly used the recent market turmoil to try and drive the share price lower while they accumulate a position. This has resulted in a lot of weak hands letting go as the SP drops. After closing below support at around 29-30c the SP swiftly recovered to back above 30c. I can now see a possible rally leading into results as buyers try to build their positions prior to the earnings announcement. I see a decent spike following earnings as this is usually the case for MBE.

In summary, I think momentum will start to turn over the next week leading into results and in a month or so we will have seen a rerate possibly back into the 40s. The current market turmoil may take a bit of steam out though, which could offer buying opportunities for a bit longer. I'm confident by the time the year is out we won't be anywhere near 30c. If we are, I'll be accumulating.

TFC Keeps dropping and MBE has significant close

Today was an all round bad day on the markets. It proved no different for my two 20k challenge stocks.

TFC broke below the 129-130 mark which it had been flirting with for a while. There are a few old support points around the low 120s so will be interesting to see where it stops. Sentiment may start changing when results come out which has happened in the past. I will hold off buying my second parcel for now.

MBE closed on the technically important 29c mark. This marks old resistance and recent support. A bounce from here would almost confirm the near term support point. Whereas if we break below then we are searching for new support. Earnings are coming up, the market already has guidance, but expect a beat as usual from management. I expect even though the market knows what's coming we wil get a good bounce.

As all good investors know - short term price fluctuations mean nothing. The quality will rise to the top.

Prophecy International Tempts

I won't do a full write up on Prophecy International (ASX:PRO), but I will just document that I am very tempted to get on board (again).

Prophecy sells software and has two major products - SNARE and eMite. SNARE is a cyber security program and eMite is an operations dashboard. Both are forecast to grow sales 67% this year (and profit by more). The forward PE is in the low 20s. Based on recent sales figures I believe they are ahead of their forecasts. They have created a virtuous circle where growth funds further growth - the best thing for investors!

I would invest in Prophecy (again) today if it weren't for the significant percentage of my portfolio that it takes up. Even then I am very tempted to increase my exposure in the short to mid term as I think a rerate isn't too far away. The company has had a very good run over the last year and since then has taken a breather. The good run is very much justified based on fundamentals! 

The below chart shows the recent price action and the possible formation of a symmetrical triangle pattern. If it were to breakout of this pattern the price target would be around $2.90.

I only use TA to back up fundamentals, and in this case I like what I see. Even if I don't add Prophecy to the 20k challenge portfolio I hope I've raised awareness of this great company for others. As always do your own research, this is just an idea.

Update on the Research

I haven't had a lot of time to research any new companies lately. I have 20 or so that I have come across (and know nothing about) that I plan to have a quick look at. I'm about to sit down (in front of the Blackcaps chasing down Pakistan's 290) and look at these. Hopefully a couple will warrant a more in depth look and be an option for my 20k challenge portfolio.

A Theory on TFC

A Theory on the TFC Share Price

TFS Corporation (ASX:TFC) as a company has got stronger over the past couple of years. However, after a rerate two years ago the share price has gone backwards. Normally, I only focus on company fundamentals and not worry about the share price. I know if I've done my homework well the share price will take care of itself.

I still have the same belief in TFC. 

This quote from John Maynard Keynes is one of my favourites: "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent". So here is me trying to explain what is most likely the market being irrational.

TFC are exposed to commodities. Their specific commodity is Indian Sandalwood. The market price of Indian sandalwood has gone up for the past 20 years. TFC are the only company that own a sustainable source of Indian Sandalwood. They also have long term agreements in place at $4,500/kg of oil (and more to follow), which is almost double the current market rate. And there it is, the word "oil". 

Take a look at the next two graphs. The first is the short rate of TFC. That is, people that are betting the share price will go down. The second is the crude oil price.

It may be a coincidence, but there is definitely a corelation between the two graphs. Does the market actually see a relation between the two? I cannot see any reasonable explanation. However, 8% of the total number of shares have been shorted.

Those that believe in the TFC story have a great opportunity to buy some shares on sale. With the strong fundamentals, and the potential that any significant price movement will force people to cover  short positions we could see a significant rerate in the not too distant future.

Entry Point Support Holding for MBE and TFC... So far

The timing of my purchases of MBE and TFC was based the recent price action. It goes without saying that my purchase price was attractive to me from a fundamental point of view.

MBE

MBE was oversold on the RSI, had just filled at gap between 29 and 29.5c, held above an old resistance line at 29c and bounced off the 200 day EMA. There was also good buy depth at 29.5 and 30.

A few days have passed and support has been tested and held a few times with good buy depth still at 29.5 and 30c. It looks like we have found a temporary bottom and evidence is building that the bottom has been found, however, tomorrow will be telling after today's 30c close.

TFC

TFC was a similar story to MBE. Hit oversold on the RSI after a big sell-off. Support rushed in at 129-130c and has held for a few days. There was a nice bounce today to close at 134c. There has been growing short interest in TFC over the past two years, and any sizeable rally could mean some short covering.

Second Purchase - TFS Corporation Beaten Down to a Buy

I have decided to initiate a position in TFC. I purchased 1700 at 130c. Once again I will split my position over two parcels (this time I will have more than 1 day between purchases!). The timing here involves an element of risk due to the recent substantial fall.

I have outlined the business in a recent post, but here are the facts behind my investment.

Monday’s price drop has potentially marked “capitulation” as the price was beaten down to close at 129.5c. The RSI shows it’s oversold, and there was good support coming in around the 130 level. Today’s pre-market shows very good support around these levels. There also is not a lot on offer on the sell side.

As mentioned in the previous post on TFC, it is very much a long-term play, with the significant future cash flow potential from large harvests still a few years away.

I believe the company is fundamentally undervalued at these levels. They trade on a trailing PE of 3.7 currently (SP of $1.30). Note this includes revaluation of plantation assets as they mature towards harvest. Some believe this is overstated. The revaluation assumes an end oil price that is much lower than what they have achieved with their agreements. I believe they have proved their business model and the revaluation is fair (it is also audited). Trailing Price/Cash EBITDA ratio (excluding non-cash revaluation etc) is 7.3. Cash EBITDA is forecast to grow by 5-10%. I believe reported NPAT will grow by more (last year this was 37% vs cash EBITDA growth of 12%) as it has in the past due to revaluation of assets.

Given my relatively short one-year timeframe (the market may continue to ignore TFC), I need a bit more than that to invest. Catalysts that I believe will have a positive impact on the share price this year are:

·         Announcement of agreements with new end markets

·         Financial results

·         Results of harvesting and subsequent sale of wood/oil

·         High establishment fees for managed plantation investors than prior years

·         Positive results from the pharmaceutical trials and Benzac sales. The reverse applies obviously

·         All the above will continue to prove the business model which will allow build investor confidence.

I will consider closing my position if there is a significant rerate. Normally I wouldn’t do this. I see significant long-term upside for the company, but given the one-year timeframe of this portfolio it will be important to lock in profits for what is otherwise a relatively long-term investment thesis.